Mass-balance modeling framework for simulating and managing long-term water quality for the lower Great Lakes

A mass balance model is used to simulate total phosphorus (TP) concentrations for the lower Great Lakes based on measured and estimated historical TP loading time series. Although Lake Erie is the primary focus, Lake Ontario is included in order to provide information about its potential response to proposed Lake Erie TP load reductions. The results demonstrate that Lake Erie loading controls would have a measurable effect on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario's offshore phosphorus concentrations.