Beach-level 24-hour forecasts of Florida red tide-induced respiratory irritation

•Respiratory irritation due to red tide is correctly forecast about 85% of the time.•Beach-specific data-driven models were developed to forecast 24 h ahead of time.•The Beach Condition Reporting System database provided training and validation data.•A wind-driven model and self-exciting Hawkes process model performed well.•The model which performed best varied by beach.