Operational wind forecast over the offshore Campos basin and adjacent coastal region in Brazil: support for the oil and gas industry toward renewable energy transition

Abstract In the context of the energy transition, the Campos Basin region is one of the most important and strategic areas in Brazil, given its relevance in oil and gas production, great wind resources, and proximity to the most populous region in the country. In this context the performance of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) operational system based on the Weather Research and Forecasting model was evaluated, in addition to an investigation of the influence of physiographic aspects and meteorological systems on the near-surface wind regime. The numerical results of wind were evaluated in comparison to one year of observational data at onshore and offshore meteorological stations. Despite the well-known spin-up problem of NWP models, the best results were obtained in the first 24 hours. Consequently, the spin-up was less significant for model performance than the deviation from the initial conditions. Overall, the best results were obtained for the offshore rather than onshore region. The model was more assertive for the most frequent wind speed classes and had a worse performance for the extreme classes, overestimating the weakest winds and underestimating the strongest winds. A counterclockwise directional bias was also found overall, indicating overestimation (underestimation) of synoptic (local) forcing. From a seasonal perspective, the best results were obtained for the winter period, characterized by the greater influence of the South Atlantic Subtropical Anticyclone. The onshore winds revealed a pattern of clockwise rotation as one moves towards higher latitudes. One hypothesis is that this pattern is a consequence of the synergistic influence of orography, coastline shape, land-sea drag difference, and air-sea interaction phenomena. Finally, this study indicates that the NWP system is promising, proving to be an important tool for managing activities related to the current oil and gas industry in addition to subsidizing the expansion of wind energy exploration.