Summer Convective Precipitation Changes over the Great Lakes Region under a Warming Scenario

To understand the future summer precipitation changes over the Great Lakes Region (GLR), we perform an ensemble of regional climate simulations through the Pseudo-Global Warming (PGW) approach. We found that different types of convective precipitation respond to the PGW signal differently. Isolated deep convection (IDC), which is usually concentrated in the southern domain, shows an increase in precipitation to the north of the GLR. Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), which are usually concentrated upstream of the GLR, shows a shift to the downstream region with increased precipitation. Thermodynamic variables such as convective available potential energy (CAPE) and convective inhibition energy (CIN) are found to be increased in almost the entire studied domain, providing a potential environment more (less) favorable for stronger (weaker) convection systems. Meanwhile, changes in lifting condensation level (LCL) and level of free convection (LFC) show a strong correlation with variations in convective precipitation, underscoring the significance of these thermodynamic factors in controlling precipitation over the domain. Results show that decreased LCL and LCF over places where convective precipitation is increased, is mainly contributed by the atmospheric moisture increase. In response to the prescribed warming perturbation, MCSs show more frequent occurrences downstream, while localized IDCs show more intense rain rate, longer duration, and larger rainfall area.